Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,332,200$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.51 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,804,634.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 146.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,804,634.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $208,695$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{198,566.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 84.5)}}\) (asimptote \(198,566.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,250,136$ on 2020-10-02

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $753,090$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(4.74 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{795,938.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 131.5)}}\) (asimptote \(795,938.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $78,492$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{80,834.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 116.2)}}\) (asimptote \(80,834.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $40,792$ on 2020-10-02

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $113,962$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(5.02 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121,824.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 139.4)}}\) (asimptote \(121,824.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,406$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(8.18 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,632.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,632.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,784$ on 2020-10-02

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $165,054$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(-1.27 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{133,249.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 71.0)}}\) (asimptote \(133,249.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,466$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(108.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,043.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,043.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,771$ on 2020-10-02

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $78,269$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{79,359.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 133.7)}}\) (asimptote \(79,359.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,386$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(132 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,508.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 129.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,508.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $46,905$ on 2020-10-02

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $113,350$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(7.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,570.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 135.0)}}\) (asimptote \(123,570.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,117$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(198 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,321.3}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 163.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,321.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,393$ on 2020-10-02

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $77,829$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(411 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112,037.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 188.5)}}\) (asimptote \(112,037.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $930$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(5.16 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,328.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 181.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,328.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,278$ on 2020-10-02

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $93,090$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(4.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,657.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 131.0)}}\) (asimptote \(93,657.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,267$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(221 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,245.0}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 112.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,245.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,357$ on 2020-10-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Haiti recovered 68%
El Salvador recovered 63%
Dominican Republic recovered 36%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 26%
Costa Rica recovered 21%

Haiti⮸

Population $11,402,528$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,792$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,186.8}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 79.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,186.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-09 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $229$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(33.8 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{226.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 87.8)}}\) (asimptote \(226.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,614$ on 2020-10-02

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,175$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,856.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 123.6)}}\) (asimptote \(29,856.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $853$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.77 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{873.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 121.7)}}\) (asimptote \(873.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,392$ on 2020-10-02

Trinidad and Tobago⮸

Population $1,399,488$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,629$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(5.99 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,366.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 180.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,366.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $76$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(-9.28 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,824$ on 2020-10-02