Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,332,200$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(6.51 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,804,634.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 146.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,804,634.3\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $208,695$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{198,566.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 84.5)}}\) (asimptote \(198,566.7\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,250,136$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $753,090$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(4.74 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{795,938.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 131.5)}}\) (asimptote \(795,938.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $78,492$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(6.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{80,834.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 116.2)}}\) (asimptote \(80,834.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $40,792$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $113,962$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(5.02 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121,824.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 139.4)}}\) (asimptote \(121,824.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,406$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(8.18 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,632.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,632.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20,784$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $165,054$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(-1.27 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{133,249.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 71.0)}}\) (asimptote \(133,249.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,466$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(108.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,043.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,043.2\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,771$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $78,269$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{79,359.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 133.7)}}\) (asimptote \(79,359.8\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,386$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(132 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,508.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 129.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,508.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $46,905$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $113,350$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(7.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,570.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 135.0)}}\) (asimptote \(123,570.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,117$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(198 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,321.3}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 163.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,321.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,393$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $77,829$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(411 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112,037.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 188.5)}}\) (asimptote \(112,037.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $930$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(5.16 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,328.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 181.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,328.3\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,278$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $93,090$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(4.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,657.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 131.0)}}\) (asimptote \(93,657.3\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,267$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(221 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,245.0}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 112.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,245.0\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,357$ on 2020-10-02